It’s the question that keeps most pre-retirees up at night: will my super actually last? The honest answer is that it depends on four things you can largely control — how much you start with, how much you draw each year, what your money earns after fees, and how long you live. Here’s how to think about it clearly.
The rough rule of thumb
A common planning shorthand is that a balance can support an annual drawdown of around 4–5% a year and have a good chance of lasting 25–30 years, assuming it stays invested and earns a reasonable return. On that basis, a $500,000 balance supports roughly $20,000–$25,000 a year from super — before you add any Age Pension. But a rule of thumb is not a plan; sequencing, fees and market timing all matter.
What ASFA says you’ll actually spend
The ASFA Retirement Standard estimates a comfortable retirement needs about $55,900 a year for a single and $78,600 for a couple (home owners, in reasonable health), and a modest lifestyle about $36,400 single / $52,500 couple. ASFA estimates the lump sum needed for a comfortable retirement at roughly $630,000 single / $690,000 couple — lower than many expect, because most retirees also receive a part or full Age Pension.
The five levers that decide the answer
- Starting balance — the obvious one, but not the whole story.
- Drawdown rate — the government sets minimum drawdowns, but you choose how much above that you take.
- Net return — fees and your investment option quietly make or break longevity. One extra 1% a year, compounded, is enormous.
- Sequencing risk — a bad market run in your first few years of retirement does far more damage than the same run later. Managing this is a core job of a good retirement plan.
- Longevity — a 65-year-old today has a real chance of living into their 90s. Planning to 90–95 is prudent, not pessimistic.
How to get a real answer, not a guess
Online rules of thumb can’t see your fees, your investment mix, your partner’s super, your Age Pension entitlement or your actual spending. A retirement projection built around your numbers can — and it’s exactly what a complimentary Donmont review produces: a clear, plain-English picture of how long your money is likely to last and what to change if the answer isn’t good enough.
Frequently asked questions
How much super do I need to retire?
ASFA estimates around $630,000 for a single and $690,000 for a couple for a 'comfortable' retirement as home owners, but many people retire comfortably on less because they also receive a part or full Age Pension. Your real number depends on your spending, your other assets and your Age Pension entitlement.
What is a safe drawdown rate?
A common planning shorthand is 4-5% of your balance a year, which has a reasonable chance of lasting 25-30 years if the money stays invested. It is a guide only - your safe rate depends on returns, fees, longevity and market sequencing.
Will the Age Pension top up my super?
For most Australians, yes. Drawing your super down can increase your Age Pension entitlement under the assets and income tests, so the two work together. This interaction is a key part of any retirement income plan.
Not sure which fund is right for you?
Get a complimentary, no-obligation review of your fees, performance and insurance from a licensed Donmont adviser.
Book my free review →